Secrets of the Surge

...Meanwhile, NEWSWEEK has learned that intelligence agencies are close to completing three new—and potentially controversial—NIEs on Iran. The most significant of the new Iran intelligence estimates is supposed to be a comprehensive assessment of the current status of Iran’s nuclear research and production program. The two other forthcoming Iran NIE reports will evaluate Iran's conventional military capabilities and the country's general political and economic situation.

Were they to be declassified and made public, the three nearly completed Iran NIEs might help inform an increasingly intense debate in Washington. Is the Bush administration secretly making plans to take some kind of military action against Tehran's nuclear program? Two intelligence officials told NEWSWEEK that at the moment the administration appears unlikely to make public any portion of the new Iran analyses, apparently because they are based too heavily on information from sensitive intelligence sources. It would be difficult to declassify parts of the document in a way that would leave them meaningful and accurate, the officials said.

Some intrigue surrounds the pending Iran nuclear estimate. Originally, the report was supposed to have been completed and sent to policymakers in the spring. But the report was held up while "new information" was incorporated. Two officials familiar with the process said that this new information was classified, and that it was unclear how much of an impact it will have on the conclusions of the new Iran NIE. However, three intelligence officials also said that so far as they knew, the thinking about Iran's nuclear weapons program has not changed: the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment remains that Tehran is between 2.5 and 8 years away from being able to produce a nuclear bomb...[Open in new window]