The Logic of a Wider Mideast War

By Robert Parry
January 14, 2007

White House press secretary Tony Snow dismisses expectations of war with Iran as an “urban legend” and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Peter Pace says that “from a military standpoint” there’s “no need to cross the Iranian border.” But there are still strong reasons to suspect the Iraq War may soon spill over to Iran and possibly Syria.

Indeed, absent some blinking of eyes in Tehran over its nuclear program or a chilling of feet in Tel Aviv and Washington over military options, the logic of a wider war seems compelling – and would fit with both recent evidence and motives of key protagonists.

Take, for instance, George W. Bush’s announcement that he is deploying Patriot anti-missile missiles to the region, reportedly to protect key U.S. military installations in Kuwait and Qatar. That wouldn’t make much sense if Bush wasn’t anticipating some reason for Iran to fire missiles at American bases.

The logic would be that the Patriots are meant to guard against a retaliatory strike from Iran, presumably after an attack by the United States or Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Bush’s decision to order two aircraft carrier strike groups into waters off Iran sends a similar message. It is a warning to Tehran that any military retaliation after an air strike could lead to an American escalation with even heavier aerial bombardments of Iran.

The flagship for a strike group is usually a Nimitz-class carrier that can launch up to 85 aircraft. Other ships include two guided missile cruisers, a frigate, two destroyers, two submarines and a supply vessel. The awesome firepower represented by two such strike groups amounts to a stern warning to Iran’s leaders that they must accept any attack on their nuclear facilities or risk far worse damage to their military and economic infrastructure.

This message is reinforced by Bush’s rejection of direct talks with Iran and Syria, as the bipartisan Iraq Study Group recommended. Some in Washington can’t fathom why Bush wouldn’t allow these contacts if for no other reason than to demonstrate the idea’s futility.

But Bush’s stubbornness makes sense if he needs to ratchet up tensions in the near term to create the political and psychological climate for war. If Bush agreed to direct talks, that likely would preclude a military confrontation for weeks if not months.

And if Israel or the United States decides to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities, some military analysts believe the attack should come sooner rather than later because Iran is strengthening its air defenses with surface-to-air missiles obtained from Russia.

Political Motives

Bush and his Israeli counterpart, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, also have powerful political motives for ordering air strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites. Both leaders have suffered military reversals – Bush in Iraq and Olmert in Lebanon – and their public approval ratings have plummeted.

Barring a reversal of fortune, the two leaders are slipping into political irrelevance and could go down in history as abject failures. Bush is often referred to as possibly the worst U.S. President ever, responsible for the biggest strategic blunder in American history... http://tinyurl.com/yhjvgw [Open in new window]

*